Perhaps the most recognizable analyst, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities spoke at DICE Europe last week (attended by Games Industry), where he made some lofty predictions about the current console generation.
First up, Pachter said, “The console installed base is as big as it’s ever going to get. [This] generation is not going to be bigger than the last generation. We’re going to be about the same.”
According to him, the Wii U will sell 20 million units (compared to 100 million for the Wii), the Xbox One will sell 100 – 110 million, and the PlayStation 4 will be the #1 console this gen by selling 120 – 130 million (compared to PS3’s 80 million). “Add it all together and it’s 260 million units, maybe, and the last cycle was 270 million.”
Agreeing with the thought that this will be the last real console cycle, Pachter explained that he doesn’t think the big three of Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo will go bankrupt. Instead, “Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS. The 3DS is selling about 15 million units a year, the DS had five consecutive years where it sold more than 26 million. So about half as big.”
Taking that thought of the last console cycle a step further, Pachter believes “console games shouldn’t require a console. And I’m not talking about the cloud.”
By removing the need for a video game system, and utilizing the increasingly popular set top boxes like Apple TV or Amazon Fire TV, he thinks consumers would be far more likely to purchase games, and titles like Call of Duty and FIFA would see their sales increase from 20 million to 40 million. Not only that, but publishers could take in more online revenue as you’d no longer be paying for PlayStation Plus or Xbox Live.
Considering that the PS4 is sitting over 25 million, do you think it will move another 100 million?
[Source: Games Industry]
